The Week UK: Iran to breach nuclear deal ‘within ten days’

The Week UK
   
Middle East
Iran to breach nuclear deal ‘within ten days’
Jun 18, 2019
Amid rising tensions with the West, Tehran says it will exceed enriched uranium limit 
         
    
    

Atta Kenare/AFP/Getty Images

US sanctions have hit Iran's economy hard

Iran has said it will breach the limit for enriched uranium set out in the landmark 2015 international nuclear agreement within the next ten days, in a further escalation of tensions between Tehran and the West.
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Behrouz Kamalvandi, the spokesman for the Iranian Atomic Energy Authority, said the country’s production of uranium enriched to a low level had increased fourfold and its stockpile would pass the 300kg limit by 27 June.

He also added Tehran could begin the process of enriching uranium closer to weapons-grade levels as early as next month.

Iran has been hit hard by harsh US sanctions imposed by the Trump administration after it unilaterally pulled out of the deal last year. Iranian oil exports have dropped to just 400,000 barrels a day, well below the levels needed to fund government spending.

Under the nuclear deal, Iran was permitted to stockpile limited amounts of enriched uranium and heavy water produced in that process, exporting any excess, but “doing so has become extremely difficult after the US revoked waivers that allowed Iran to export those excess stockpiles, effectively forcing Iran to halt enrichment or ignore the limits, which it is now doing”, says CNN.

The UK, France and Germany have been looking for ways circumvent US sanctions and keep the deal alive but have so far failed to protect private-sector firms from the threat of secondary sanctions if they continue to trade with Iran.

The Financial Times says yesterday’s announcement “added to a sense that the nuclear deal Iran signed with world powers in 2015, which has been on life support, is in danger of total collapse”.

The Guardian’s diplomatic editor Patrick Wintour, says this “puts more pressure on Europe to come up with new terms for Iran’s 2015 nuclear deal”.

The west European signatories to the deal have defended the nuclear accord as the best way to limit Iran’s enrichment of uranium, “but Iran has repeatedly criticised delays in setting up a European mechanism that would shield trade with Iran from US sanctions in an effort to save the nuclear deal”, reports Reuters.

Last week, the EU agreed an unpublished timetable of its own with Iran to help ease trade between Tehran and European nations, “but it is not clear whether the measures will come quickly enough or be sufficient to persuade Iran to rethink its strategy of chipping away at the deal”, writes Wintour.

Iran has not previously breached the accord, but last month Tehran said it would increase its atomic activity as the Iranian economy reels from the impact of US sanctions. The UK, France and Germany have warned Iran not to violate the deal and have previously said they would have no choice but to reimpose their own sanctions in that event.

However, “context in international affairs is everything”, says the BBC’s Jonathan Marcus.

Since it signalled its intention to break out from some of the constraints imposed by the nuclear deal in early May, Iran has been accused by the US and other Western nations of two sets of attacks on oil tankers in the Gulf.

This has pushed Washington and Tehran to the verge of a military clash which could have far-reaching implications for the region. Israel waded into the already unstable situation yesterday by urging world powers to step up sanctions against Tehran swiftly should it exceed the enriched uranium limit.

“It remained unclear how much of Iran’s announcements were bluster and spin aimed at putting pressure on nuclear deal participants including the EU, UK, France, Germany, Russia and China,” says The Independent.

“Iran may also have been trying to up its leverage with the Trump administration, which has demanded fresh talks to renegotiate a ‘better deal’,” says the news site.

It is a risky strategy, however, and its further threat to increase its level of enrichment to a stage that would bring it much closer to weapons-grade material “adds another element of risk into an already combustible mix”, says Marcus.

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