Monday 30 April 2018

Care2 Healthy Living/Maggie McCracken: 5 Products to Skip Buying Organic If You Need to Save Money

Care2 Healthy Living  
5 Products to Skip Buying Organic If You Need to Save Money
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5 Products to Skip Buying Organic If You Need to Save Money
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    By: Maggie McCracken
    April 29, 2018

    About Maggie
    Follow Maggie at @MaggieBlogs

In a perfect world, many of us would choose to buy all of our products organic, all-natural and straight from the earth. But unfortunately, doing so isn’t a reality for many of us. Organic products (and “all-natural” products) tend to be more expensive than conventional products. While a lot of purists insist on keeping chemicals out of their homes completely, others seek to find a balance between organic where it’s absolutely necessary, and budget-friendly in other areas.

It should be said that there are many reasons people buy organic. Organic products are often better for the environment, less allergenic, and more likely to be cruelty-free. But if you go organic because you are concerned about endocrine disruptors, carcinogens and your own health, there are some areas where it’s okay to save your money. If you aren’t interested in DIYing all of your home products but can’t afford to buy absolutely everything organic, here are a few areas where you can feel okay about going conventional:
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Shampoo and Conditioner

One of the reasons that people who love beauty products often go natural with their skincare and makeup is because those products sit on the skin for long periods of time. And when products sit on the skin, they are absorbed into the bloodstream. While organic shampoos and conditioners may be great for your hair and better for the environment, you probably don’t need to freak out over your own personal health if you can’t afford organic shampoos and conditioners. Look for something gentle, unscented and budget-friendly, and you’ll be just fine.
Face Wash

Furthermore, face wash is another product that is only in contact with your skin for a minute or so at the very max. Therefore, if you find a face wash you love that isn’t 100% organic, don’t fret. A good, old-fashioned soap or face wash will be just fine and probably isn’t going to lead to any adverse health effects.
Outdoor Furniture and Used Furniture

Furniture is known to have a lot of carcinogenic chemicals in it due the presence of retardants. This is definitely a cause for concern, but it may comfort you to know that a lot of these chemicals air out over time, which means that old furniture and outdoor furniture may be less of a threat to your health than brand-new furniture kept indoors. If it’s time for a sofa, armchair or patio furniture, go used if possible (it’s more eco-friendly, too!) and don’t feel too worried about any furniture you store outdoors.
Toilet Bowl Cleaner

Toilet bowl cleaners can have some nasty chemicals in them, but if you’re not interested in DIYing your own cleaning products, this is the one conventional cleaning product you may be able to make an exception for in your home. While it’s certainly nasty, it’s unlikely to come into contact with your skin. However, after applying it, you may want to open your window and turn on a fan to help air out any lingering chemicals.
The Clean 15

Finally, while organic food is often better for the environment than conventional food, if you can’t afford to buy 100% organic it will comfort you to know that these fifteen fruits and veggies are unlikely to be contaminated with pesticides and other toxins:

    onions
    avocados
    sweet corn
    pineapples
    mango
    sweet peas
    asparagus
    kiwi fruit
    cabbage
    eggplant
    cantaloupe
    watermelon
    grapefruit
    sweet potatoes
    sweet onions

Related Articles:

    Is Your Cannabis Really ‘Organic’?
    How Toxic Is Your Furniture?
    Should You Buy Organic Wine?

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19 comments
Christine S
Christine S10 minutes ago

Thank you! Please always buy organic and fair trade coffee and chocolate- the rainforest is somewhat protected when these products are grown organically.
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M Q
M Q18 minutes ago

Thank you.
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Brad H
Brad H18 minutes ago

thanks
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Danuta W
Danuta Wabout an hour ago

Thank you for posting.
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Sherry K
Sherry K3 hours ago

Many thanks to you !
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David C
David C4 hours ago

thanks
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RK R
RK R4 hours ago

Alcohol, sugar, politicians.
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Danii P
Danii P7 hours ago

ty
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Chad Anderson
Chad Anderson13 hours ago

Thank you!
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Ellie M
Ellie M13 hours ago

ty
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Care2 Healthy Living/Jordyn Cormier: Most Tampons Are Toxic. Here’s What to Look Out For.

Care2 Healthy Living  
Most Tampons Are Toxic. Here's What to Look Out For.
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Most Tampons Are Toxic. Here’s What to Look Out For.
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    By: Jordyn Cormier
    April 29, 2018

    About Jordyn

The average woman uses 9,000 to 11,000 tampons in her lifetime–that’s a lot of tampons! And if you’re not careful, it’s also a lot of chemicals.

Why should we be so concerned about chemicals in our tampons? Because chemicals absorbed through the vagina do not undergo the same elimination and detoxification pathways as the things we eat. Instead, they go directly into your bloodstream, unimpeded.

While one box of tampons may not be toxic on its own, using chemically-laden tampons month after month, thousands of times over could be putting your reproductive health at real risk. Here are a few chemicals in tampons to be on the lookout for.

Using toxic tampons month after month could be putting your reproductive health at risk. Here are chemicals in tampons to look out for.
Toxic Chemicals in Tampons
Dioxin

Dioxin is a byproduct of converting wood pulp into synthetic rayon (a material which is used in many tampons). The World Health Organization classifies dioxin as a probable carcinogen. Some research has also linked dioxin exposure to endometriosis.
Love This? Never Miss Another Story.

While tampon manufacturers have practically eliminated this chemical byproduct from their processes, there are still very trace amounts of dioxin in tampons. And while the FDA requires tampon companies to monitor dioxin levels, this information is not public.

To be fair, there are dioxins all around us, thanks to years of industrial pollution of our air, water, and earth.

Studies have shown that we probably consume more dioxins in the foods we eat than in our tampons, but that still doesn’t mean that having any amount of dioxins down there is a good thing.

Dioxins are very dangerous chemicals and they accumulate in the body over time. While the amount of dioxin in one tampon may be negligible, can we say the same for 10,000?
Conventional Cotton

The lining of the vagina is actually highly permeable, meaning things you put in there can easily leach into your system. And while cotton may seem fairly innocuous, don’t be fooled.

Over 90 percent of US cotton has been genetically modified to be more Roundup resistant. This means that most cotton is sprayed with a lot more pesticides, like Monsanto’s Roundup.

Roundup, for those of you who don’t know, is another name for glyphosate, a known carcinogen. Conventional cotton contains traces of these dangerous chemical herbicides and is a GMO product, which is probably something you’d like to avoid in your tampons if you already try to avoid GMOs in your food.

If your cotton tampon is not organic, you are putting yourself at real risk for absorbing nasty pesticide and chemical residue through the highly permeable membrane of your vaginal canal.
Added Fragrance

Most mainstream tampons contain chemical odor neutralizers, dyes, and synthetic fragrances. But since tampons are regarded as a “medical device” companies are not required to disclose these ingredients to the consumer.

These chemicals may be harmful. In fact, recent research has shown that scented female product may increase a woman’s exposure to dangerous phthalates, known endocrine disruptors. These chemical scents also cause an imbalance in your vagina’s delicate pH, which can lead to infections. Flowery scented tampons simply aren’t worth the risk.
Finding Safer Tampons & Other Menstrual Products

If you use tampons, it is best to use unscented tampons made of 100 percent organic cotton to decrease your chemical load. There are plenty of subscription services out there (like my personal favorite, Lola) if you are unable to find clean tampon options near you.

Or, even more sustainable, try a reusable menstrual cup. However, women with an IUD should be cautious about the cup, as in rare cases the suction can dislodge the device.

Of course, period underwear or a pad may be the safest options when it comes to potential toxicity, so only use tampons/cups when it’s necessary.
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10 comments
Heather B
Heather B9 minutes ago

women's products get the same lack of care and attention as women's health care.
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Danuta W
Danuta Wabout an hour ago

Thank you for posting.
SEND
Jeramie D
Jeramie D2 hours ago

Thank you
SEND
Sherry K
Sherry K3 hours ago

Noted
SEND
No W
No W6 hours ago

thank you for posting
SEND
Danii P
Danii P7 hours ago

ty
SEND
Greta L
Greta L8 hours ago

Good to know. Thanks.
SEND
Chad Anderson
Chad Anderson13 hours ago

Thank you. I am faculty advisor to the campus English magazine, which recently covered the controversy over this issue in Korea.
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Ellie M
Ellie M13 hours ago

ty
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Sue H
Sue H14 hours ago

Helpful information, thanks.
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Care2 Healthy Living/Jordyn Cormier: The Biological Reason It's So Much Easier to Be Negative


Care2 Healthy Living  
The Biological Reason It's So Much Easier to Be Negative
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The Biological Reason It’s So Much Easier to Be Negative
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    By: Jordyn Cormier
    April 29, 2018

    About Jordyn

Do you feel like you’re in rut? When you talk to friends, do you notice yourself focusing on the things that are tough, unfair, or wrong in life? Have you been called a Debbie downer? You’re not alone. Most people tend to focus on the negative. In fact, when left to our own devices, the human brain is actually hardwired to bias towards negativity.

This is a pretty well-documented phenomenon with plenty of situational examples. For instance, one study showed that a fear of punishment was more effective in getting children to follow the rules than a desire for rewards.

Another showed that we view a loss of resources, such as money, as more important than a gain of resources. For example, losing $100 seems like a much bigger deal to most people than gaining $100. Negativity exerts a stronger pull.

It makes sense. Our ancestors wouldn’t have survived the millennia if they were hardwired for positivity.

Rather than avoiding the jungle at night out of fear and caution, a positivity-oriented human would have wandered in and been eaten by a panther. By focusing heavily on the negative dangers surrounding them, our ancestors were mostly able to avoid unnecessary harm. That’s why humans are still around today.

Black Panther
Love This? Never Miss Another Story.

But we live in a vastly different world than our ancestors, one in which we are less concerned with the dangers posed by nature and more concerned with dangers posed by the mind–depression, stress, anxiety, self-loathing.

Without imminent physical dangers, our tendency to focus on the negative no longer serves us. It just causes us to swirl around the mental toilet bowl, thinking horrible thoughts, but never getting the relief of a flush. This chronic stress is tremendously unhealthy, and it’s making us sick.

That’s why it is so essential to practice positive thinking. Before you roll your eyes, positive thinking is more than being annoyingly optimistic and upbeat. It’s more than just plastering a smile on your face and lifting your arms into a power position. It’s about enjoying your life and appreciating the world around you.
How to Practice Positivity & Fight Your Negative Hard-Wiring

While focusing on the negative has its place, so does a positive outlook. Overcome your negativity bias with these daily positivity practices.
Focused Journaling

Start journaling every single day–but not ordinary journaling. While your traditional journal is often a place where you beat the drum of your own trials, tribulations, and sufferings, your positivity journal should be something entirely different.

This journal should be the place where you sit down for five minutes and jot down all the things in your life that make you happy and grateful. Even a rainy day has its bright sides. Perhaps you get to snuggle with a puppy every morning. Maybe you got complimented at work and you’ve completed everything on your to-do list early. Or maybe you made some really good hot chocolate–what’s better than that?

You can even use these pages to go the extra mile and practice listing all of the ways a somewhat negative person or event has impacted you in a positive light. For example, instead of complaining about an ex, list the wonderful things that you learned from that past relationship and congratulate yourself on all the ways you’ve grown since.

This journal should be a daily practice in shifting your perspective, and you’ll be surprised at how effective it is. As little as five minutes of positivity practice a day can significantly improve your feelings of self-worth and life satisfaction.

Beautiful african american woman smiling with sunset
Meditation

I know you’re sick of hearing this, but meditation seriously works.

Research has shown that people who meditate daily have a more positive outlook on life than those who do not. Spend some intimate time with yourself, and the world may start appearing a little rosier.
Letting Yourself Have Fun

And I don’t mean just going out for a drink with your friends. I mean real fun. Do something you haven’t allowed yourself to do since you were a child.

We prioritize time for business meetings, family commitments, and friend catch-up sessions. Why don’t we prioritize time for our own happiness? That is literally your purpose in life–to be truly happy. It makes acknowledging the positive a lot easier.

You can change your brain for the better. All it takes is a little consistent practice. Work will always be there. Your darker thoughts will always be there. Now is the time to love yourself, have a bit of fun and be grateful that you no longer have to worry about panthers chasing you through a jungle.

We’ve got it pretty good.
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13 comments
Judith Blish
Judith Blish5 minutes ago

A graitude list is a terrific habit; list 10 things to be grateful for daily, and/or when fretful, waiting for or riding a bus, at a stop light, wherever. Count everything; if you can breathe, see, hear, walk, those count. We take so much for granted and only remember when we lose it or see someone who does not have it. If you have enough money to get through one more day, if you have a pet or a person who loves you, wow! This habit fends off the blues like nothing else. Write it, tell it, tell it to yourself. Even if mourning a death or a breakup, at least you had some time with your person.
SEND
Heather B
Heather B11 minutes ago

Positivist does not mean losing the survival instinct or throwing caution to the wind. this article confuses the fact that positivity is not stupidity.
SEND
Yvonne T
Yvonne T2 hours ago

I am very grateful....
SEND
Danuta W
Danuta W3 hours ago

Thanks for sharing.
SEND
Sherry K
Sherry K3 hours ago

Noted
SEND
RK R
RK R4 hours ago

The positive about this article is "No, negativity is learned; not hardwired." Let me advance you to child emotional development. What is the long-term psychological difference between children raised in positive emotional environments vs. the opposite? There is your positive outlook for the day.
SEND
Renata B
Renata B6 hours ago

Good article. Thanks.
SEND
Danii P
Danii P7 hours ago

ty
SEND
Jessica K
Jessica K10 hours ago

Nothing wrong with admitting challenges but it's a good idea to find constructive ways to deal with them without too much rumination. Thanks.
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Fernando A
Fernando A11 hours ago

Revital Para Celulites é um suplemento natural composto de cálcio, um ótimo agente que equilibra a coagulação e o PH do sangue, vitamina C, que é uma substância antioxidante, que promove colágeno, auxilia na formação da proteína responsável por produzir tecidos para a pele e vasos sanguíneos e outros que auxiliam na redução da celulite, vitamina E, que retarda o envelhecimento e tem outros benefícios, vitamina A, que combate a inflamação e melhora a saúde da pele, zinco, que aumenta a imunidade, é um poderoso antioxidante, equilibra os hormônios que se desequilibrados podem causar

http://www.quebras.com.br/revital-funciona/
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2nd Edition of the African Forum of Territorial Managers and Training Institutes targeting Local and Regional Governments: The Network of Human Resources Managers of African Local and Regional Governments (Local Africa HR-Net) is now set up!

The forum also served as a framework for the holding of the constituent general assembly of the African Network of Human Resources Managers of Local and Regional Governments

SAIDIA, Morocco, April 30, 2018/ -- The second edition of the African Forum of Territorial Managers and Training Institutes (www.UCLGA.org/events/2nd-edition-of-the-african-forum-of-territorial-managers) targeting Local and Regional Governments was held April 25-26, 2018 at the BE LIVE hotel in Saidia, (Kingdom of Morocco, Oriental Region). The meeting was co-organized by the Ministry of Home Affairs of the Kingdom of Morocco, the Association of Regions of Morocco (ARM), the Moroccan Association of Presidents of Municipal Councils (AMPCC), the Oriental Regional Council and United Cities and Local Governments of Africa (UCLG Africa) within the framework of the actions conducted by the Africa Local Governments Academy (ALGA).

250 participants from 35 countries took part in the forum, including ministers, presidents of associations of local and regional authorities, presidents and directors of training institutes, senior staff of local and regional administrations, experts in local governance, components of civil society and the private sector.

The second edition of the forum had the topic: "Mobilization for the development of the human capital of local and regional governments: a key requirement for the attainment of the Sustainable Development Goals."

Mr. Abdennbi BIIOUI, President of the Oriental Region, chaired the deliberations which were also attended by the following dignitaries: Her Excellency Ms. Paulita WIE, Minister Delegate in charge of Urban Affairs of Liberia; General Mohamed Kamal Hussein BENDARY, Secretary General of the Ministry of Municipal Development of Egypt; Mr. Mouaad JAMAI, Wali of the Oriental Region; Mr. Mohamed MBARKI, Director General of the Oriental Development Agency; Mr. Mohamed BENKADDOUR, President of the Mohammed Premier University of Oujda (UMP); Mr. Omar Ben ISMAIL, President of Saidia Local Government; and Mr. Jean Pierre Elong MBASSI, Secretary General of UCLG Africa.

The various addresses highlighted the importance of investing in human capital to achieve local development and to ensure local government trades are integrated amongst the first career choices of young Africans entering into professional life. Speakers emphasized the symbolic significance of holding this forum in the Oriental region. The region has played a leading role in the movement of African countries against colonial rule, in the strengthening of relations between Sub-Saharan Africa and Mediterranean Africa and in building an African conscience.

Contributions to the deliberations came from representatives of training institutes and organizations such as the Africa Capacity Building Foundation (ACBF), the African Association of Public Administration Management (AAPAM), the International City/ County Managers (ICMA, USA), State Agency for Public Service and Social Innovation under the President of the Republic of Azerbaijan (ASAN), the Al Akhawayn University of Ifrane (Morocco), the International Institute of Administrative Science (IIAS), the Kenya School of Governance (KSG), Transparency Morocco, Marchika Med and the General Confederation of Enterprises of Morocco (CGEM-Morocco).

 During the two day forum, participants debated and formulated recommendations on the following four themes:

 •   Investment in the human capital of African public administrations;
•    The new human resources requirements of local and regional governments induced by the sustainable development goals;
•    Mobilization of the human capital of territorial administrations for the development and economic attractiveness of territories;
•    Cooperation to improve the human capital performance of local and regional governments in Africa.

The forum also served as a framework for the holding of the constituent general assembly of the African Network of Human Resources Managers of Local and Regional Governments, namely "Local Africa HR-Net."

28 Human Resources Managers of Local and Regional Governments from 20 African countries took part in the general assembly, which adopted the Rules and Regulations and set its objectives to:

•    Promote the common voice of human resources managers of local and regional governments at the local, national, regional and continental levels;
•    Disseminate good practice in the field of human resources management within the local and regional governments of Africa;
•    Improve and sustain the professional competence of members and inculcate the culture of performance, service delivery, collaborative networking practice and peer learning;
 •   Participate in the work and support the initiatives of the Observatory on Human Resources of African Local and Regional Governments, most especially the production of the report on, "The State of Human Resources in African Local and Regional Governments," which UCLG Africa publishes every three years on the occasion of the Africities Summits. The 8th edition of the Africities summit is scheduled to take place from November 20-24, 2018 in Marrakech (Morocco).

The general assembly also elected the members of the Executive Committee of the network as follows:

  •  Northern Africa: Mr. Ben Mohamed Lachcen, HR Manager of Agadir Municipality (Morocco)
 •   West Africa: Mr. Badara Samb, HR Manager of Louga Territorial Department Council (Senegal)
•    Central Africa: Ms Makanda Kodono Marie Reine, HR Manager of Bangui City Council (Central African Republic)
•    East Africa: Mr. Nzoyisaba Claver, HR Manager of Bujumbura City Council (Burundi)
•    Southern Africa: Ms Albertina Mario Francisco Tivane Albertina, Human Resources Officer of Maputo Municipality (Mozambique).
•    Ms. Albertina Mario Francisco Tivane Albertina was unanimously elected President of Local Africa HR-Net.

At the end of the deliberations of the forum, the participants adopted the Declaration of Saidia  and a vote of thanks addressed to His Majesty King Mohammed VI.

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of United Cities and Local Governments of Africa (UCLG Africa).

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For further information, please contact:
Gaëlle Yomi: Tel: + 212 610 56 71 45 Email: Gyomi@UCLGA.org
Gautier Brygo: Tel: +212 661 300 829 Email: GBrygo@GMail.com
Zerouali Mohammed: Tel: +212 666036579 Email: M_Zerouali@Yahoo.fr

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United Cities and Local Governments of Africa (UCLG Africa)

Investopedia/Steven Nickolas: Macaulay Duration vs. Modified Duration

Investopedia

Macaulay Duration vs. Modified Duration
By Steven Nickolas | Updated December 15, 2017 — 11:16 AM EST
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Macaulay duration and modified duration are mainly used to calculate the durations of bonds. The Macaulay duration calculates the weighted average time before a bondholder would receive the bond's cash flows. Conversely, modified duration measures the price sensitivity of a bond when there is a change in the yield to maturity.
The Macaulay Duration

The Macaulay duration is calculated by multiplying the time period by the periodic coupon payment and dividing the resulting value by 1 plus the periodic yield raised to the time to maturity. Next, the value is calculated for each period and added together. Then, the resulting value is added to the total number of periods multiplied by the par value, divided by 1, plus the periodic yield raised to the total number of periods. Then the value is divided by the current bond price.

A bond's price is calculated by multiplying the cash flow by 1, minus 1, divided by 1, plus the yield to maturity, raised to the number of periods divided by the required yield. The resulting value is added to the par value, or maturity value, of the bond divided by 1, plus the yield to maturity raised to the number of total number of periods.

For example, assume the Macaulay duration of a five-year bond with a maturity value of $5,000 and a coupon rate of 6% is 4.87 years ((1*60) / (1+0.06) + (2*60) / (1 + 0.06) ^ 2 + (3*60) / (1 + 0.06) ^ 3 + (4*60) / (1 + 0.06) ^ 4 + (5*60) / (1 + 0.06) ^ 5 + (5*5000) / (1 + 0.06) ^ 5) / (60*((1- (1 + 0.06) ^ -5) / (0.06)) + (5000 / (1 + 0.06) ^ 5)).

The modified duration for this bond, with a yield to maturity of 6% for one coupon period, is 4.59 years (4.87/(1+0.06/1). Therefore, if the yield to maturity increases from 6% to 7%, the duration of the bond will decrease by 0.28 year (4.87 - 4.59).

The formula to calculate the percentage change in the price of the bond is the change in yield multiplied by the negative value of the modified duration multiplied by 100%. This resulting percentage change in the bond, for a 1% yield increase, is calculated to be -4.59% (0.01*- 4.59* 100%).
The Modified Duration

The modified duration is an adjusted version of the Macaulay duration, which accounts for changing yield to maturities. The formula for the modified duration is the value of the Macaulay duration divided by 1, plus the yield to maturity, divided by the number of coupon periods per year. The modified duration determines the changes in a bond's duration and price for each percentage change in the yield to maturity.

For example, assume a six-year bond has a par value of $1,000 and an annual coupon rate of 8%. The Macaulay duration is calculated to be 4.99 years ((1*80) / (1 + 0.08) + (2*80) / (1 + 0.08) ^ 2 + (3*80) / (1 + 0.08) ^ 3 + (4*80) / (1 + 0.08) ^ 4 + (5*80) / (1 + 0.08) ^ 5 + (6*80) / (1 + 0.08) ^ 6 + (6*1000) / (1 + 0.08) ^ 6) / (80*(1- (1 + 0.08) ^ -6) / 0.08 + 1000 / (1 + 0.08) ^ 6).

The modified duration for this bond, with a yield to maturity of 8% for one coupon period, is 4.62 years (4.99 / (1 + 0.08 / 1). Therefore, if the yield to maturity increases from 8% to 9%, the duration of the bond will decrease by 0.37 year (4.99 - 4.62).

The formula to calculate the percentage change in the price of the bond is the change in yield multiplied by the negative value of the modified duration multiplied by 100%. This resulting percentage change in the bond, for an interest rate increase from 8% to 9%, is calculated to be -4.62% (0.01* - 4.62* 100%).

Therefore, if interest rates rise 1% overnight, the price of the bond is expected to drop 4.62%.
The Modified Duration and Interest Rate Swaps

Modified duration could be extended to calculate the amount of years it would take an interest rate swap to repay the price paid for the swap. An interest rate swap is the exchange of one set of cash flows for another and is based on interest rate specifications between the parties.

The modified duration is calculated by dividing the dollar value of a one basis point change of an interest rate swap leg, or series of cash flows, by the present value of the series of cash flows. The value is then multiplied by 10,000. The modified duration for each series of cash flows can also be calculated by dividing the dollar value of a basis point change of the series of cash flows by the notional value plus the market value. The fraction is then multiplied by 10,000.

The modified duration of both legs must be calculated to compute the modified duration of the interest rate swap. The difference between the two modified durations is the modified duration of the interest rate swap. The formula modified duration of the interest rate swap is the modified duration of the receiving leg minus the modified duration of the paying leg.

For example, assume bank A and bank B enter into an interest rate swap. The modified duration of the receiving leg of a swap is calculated as nine years and the modified duration of the paying leg is calculated as five years. The resulting modified duration of the interest rate swap is four years (9 years – 5 years).
Comparing the Macaulay Duration and the Modified Duration

Since the Macaulay duration measures the weighted average time an investor must hold a bond until the present value of the bond’s cash flows is equal to the amount paid for the bond, it is often used by bond managers who want to manage bond portfolio risk with immunization strategies.

In contrast, the modified duration identifies how much the duration changes for each percentage change in the yield. It also measures how much a change in the interest rates impact the price of a bond. Thus, the modified duration can provide a risk measure to bond investors by approximating how much the price of a bond could decline with an increase in interest rates. It's important to note that bond prices and interest rates have an inverse relationship with each other.
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Investopedia/Nickolas Lioudis: Use duration and convexity to measure bond risk

Investopedia

Use duration and convexity to measure bond risk
By Nickolas Lioudis 
Updated January 3, 2018 — 12:26 PM EST
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A coupon bond makes a series of payments over its life, and so fixed-income investors need a measure of the average maturity of the bond's promised cash flow to serve as a summary statistic of the effective maturity of the bond. Such investors also need a measure that can be used as a guide to the sensitivity of a bond to interest rate changes, since price sensitivity tends to increase with time to maturity.

The statistic that aids investors in both areas is duration, which along with convexity can help fixed-income investors gauge uncertainty when managing their portfolios. (For background reading, check out our Advanced Bond Concepts tutorial.)
Duration of a Bond

In 1938, Frederick Macaulay termed the effective-maturity concept the duration of the bond, and suggested that duration be computed as the weighted average of the times to each coupon or principal payment made by the bond. Macaulay's duration formula is as follows:



    D is the bond's duration
    C is the periodic coupon payment
    F is the face value at maturity (in dollars)
    T is the number of periods until maturity
    r is the periodic yield to maturity
    t is the period in which the coupon is received

Duration in Fixed Income Portfolio Management

Duration is key in fixed-income portfolio management for the following three reasons:

    It is a simple summary statistic of the effective average maturity of a portfolio.
    It is an essential tool in immunizing portfolios from interest rate risk.
    It is an estimate of the interest rate sensitivity of a portfolio.

Because duration is so important to fixed-income portfolio management, it is worth exploring the following properties:

    The duration of a zero-coupon bond equals its time to maturity.
    Holding maturity constant, a bond's duration is lower when the coupon rate is higher. This rule is due to the impact of early higher coupon payments.
    Holding the coupon rate constant, a bond's duration generally increases with time to maturity. This property of duration is fairly intuitive; however, duration does not always increase with time to maturity. For some deep-discount bonds, duration may fall with increases in maturity.
    Holding other factors constant, the duration of a coupon bond is higher when the bond's yield to maturity is lower. This principle applies to coupon bonds. For zero-coupon bonds, duration equals time to maturity, regardless of the yield to maturity.
    The duration of a level perpetuity is (1 + y) / y. For example, at a 10% yield, the duration of perpetuity that pays $100 once a year forever will equal 1.10 / .10 = 11 years, but at an 8% yield it will equal 1.08 / .08 = 13.5 years. This principle makes it obvious that maturity and duration can differ substantially. The maturity of the perpetuity is infinite, whereas the duration of the instrument at a 10% yield is only 11 years. The present-value-weighted cash flow early on in the life of the perpetuity dominates the computation of duration. (For more information on portfolio management, read Equity Portfolio Management Mechanics and Preparing For A Career As A Portfolio Manager.)

Duration for Gap Management in Fixed Income

Many banks have a natural mismatch between asset and liability maturities. Bank liabilities are primarily the deposits owed to customers, most of which are very short-term in nature and of low duration. Bank assets by contrast are composed largely of outstanding commercial and consumer loans or mortgages. These assets are of longer duration and their values are more sensitive to interest rate fluctuations. In periods when interest rates increase unexpectedly, banks can suffer serious decreases in net worth if their assets fall in value by more than their liabilities.

To manage this risk, a technique called gap management became popular in the 1970s and early 1980s, with the idea being to limit the "gap" between asset and liability durations. Adjustable-rate mortgages (ARM) were one way to reduce the duration of bank-asset portfolios.

Unlike conventional mortgages, ARMs do not fall in value when market rates increase because the rates they pay are tied to the current interest rate. Even if the indexing is imperfect or entails lags, it greatly diminishes sensitivity to interest rate fluctuations.

On the other side of the balance sheet, the introduction of longer-term bank certificates of deposit (CD) with fixed terms to maturity served to lengthen the duration of bank liabilities, also reducing the duration gap. (Learn more about financial gaps in Playing The Gap.)
Understanding Gap Management

One way to view gap management is as an attempt by the bank to equate the durations of assets and liabilities to effectively immunize its overall position from interest rate movements. Because bank assets and liabilities are roughly equal in size, if their durations are also equal, any change in interest rates will affect the value of assets and liabilities equally. Interest rate changes would have no effect on net worth. Therefore, net worth immunization requires a portfolio duration, or gap, of zero. (To learn more about bank assets and liabilities, read Analyzing A Bank's Financial Statements.)

Institutions with future fixed obligations, such as pension funds and insurance companies, are different from banks in that they think more in terms of future commitments. Pension funds, for example, have an obligation to provide workers with a flow of income upon retirement and must have sufficient funds available to meet this commitment. As interest rates fluctuate, both the value of the assets held by the fund and the rate at which those assets generate income fluctuate.

The portfolio manager, therefore, may want to protect (immunize) the future accumulated value of the fund at some target date against interest-rate movements. The idea behind immunization is that with duration-matched assets and liabilities, the ability of the asset portfolio to meet the firm's obligations should be unaffected by interest rate movements. (Read more about pension funds' obligations in Analyzing Pension Risk.)
Convexity in Fixed Income Management

Unfortunately, duration has limitations when used as a measure of interest rate sensitivity. The statistic calculates a linear relationship between price and yield changes in bonds. In reality, the relationship between the changes in price and yield is convex.

In Figure 1, the curved line represents the change in prices given a change in yields. The straight line, tangent to the curve, represents the estimated change in price via the duration statistic. The shaded area shows the difference between the duration estimate and the actual price movement. As indicated, the larger the change in interest rates, the larger the error in estimating the price change of the bond.
Figure 1

Convexity, which is a measure of the curvature of the changes in the price of a bond in relation to changes in interest rates, is used to address this error. Basically, it measures the change in duration as interest rates change. The formula is as follows:

    C is convexity
    B is the bond price
    r is the interest rate
    d is duration

In general, the higher the coupon, the lower the convexity, because a 5% bond is more sensitive to interest rate changes than a 10% bond. Due to the call feature, callable bonds will display negative convexity if yields fall too low, meaning the duration will decrease when yields decrease. Zero-coupon bonds have the highest convexity. These relationships are only valid when comparing bonds that have the same durations and yields to maturity.

A high convexity bond is more sensitive to changes in interest rates and should see larger fluctuations in price when interest rates move.

The opposite is true of low convexity bonds; their prices don't fluctuate as much when interest rates change. When graphed on a two-dimensional plot, this relationship should generate a long-sloping U shape (hence, the term "convex").

Low-coupon and zero-coupon bonds, which tend to have lower yields, have the highest interest rate volatility. In technical terms, this means that the modified duration of the bond requires a larger adjustment to keep pace with the higher change in price after an interest-rate moves. Lower coupon rates lead to lower yields, and lower yields lead to higher degrees of convexity.

(To read about some risks associated with callable and other bonds, read Call Features: Don't Get Caught Off Guard and Corporate Bonds: An Introduction To Credit Risk.)
The Bottom Line

Interest rates are constantly changing and add a level of uncertainty to fixed-income investing. Duration and convexity allow investors to quantify this uncertainty and are useful tools in the management of fixed-income portfolios.

For further reading on fixed-income investing, see Creating The Modern Fixed-Income Portfolio and Common Bond Buying Mistakes.
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Investopedia: What is 'Duration'?

Investopedia
Duration
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What is 'Duration'

Duration is a measure of the sensitivity of the price -- the value of principal -- of a fixed-income investment to a change in interest rates. Duration is expressed as a number of years. Bond prices are said to have an inverse relationship with interest rates. Therefore, rising interest rates indicate bond prices are likely to fall, while declining interest rates indicate bond prices are likely to rise.
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BREAKING DOWN 'Duration'

The duration indicator is a complex calculation involving present value, yield, coupon, final maturity and call features. Fortunately for investors, this indicator is a standard data point provided in the presentation of comprehensive bond and bond mutual fund information. The bigger the duration, the greater the interest-rate risk or reward for bond prices.

It is a common misconception among non-professional investors that bonds and bond funds are risk free. They are not. Investors need to be aware of two main risks that can affect a bond's investment value: credit risk (default) and interest rate risk (rate fluctuations). The duration indicator addresses the latter issue.
Usefulness of Duration

As investors consider their portfolio construction, the concept of duration enables them to compare bonds and bond funds with a variety of coupon rates and maturity dates. The expectation of interest rates rising in the future would point investors to shorter-duration bonds, which have less interest-rate risk.
Effects of Duration

Duration is measured in years. Therefore, if a fixed income security has a high duration, it indicates that investors would need to wait a long period to receive the coupon payments and principal invested. Moreover, the higher the duration, the more the fixed income security's price would fall if there is a rise in interest rates. The opposite is true.

Normally, if interest rates change by 1%, a fixed income security's price is likely to experience an inverse change by approximately 1% for each year of duration.
Duration Example

For example, assume an investor wishes to select bonds which suit her portfolio's criteria. She believes interest rates will rise over the next three years and may consider selling the bonds prior to the maturity date. Therefore, she would need to consider the duration when investing and may wish to invest in bonds with shorter duration.

Assume an investor wishes to purchase a 15-year bond that yields 6% for $1,000 or a 10-year bond that yields 3% for $1,000. If the 15-year bond is held to maturity, the investor would receive $60 each year and would receive the $1,000 principal after 15 years. Conversely, if the 10-year bond is held until maturity, the investor would receive $30 per year and would receive the $1,000 principal invested.

Therefore, the investor would want to consider 10-year bond because the bond would only lose 7%, or (-10% + 3%), if interest rates rise by 1%. On the other hand, the 15-year bond would lose 9%, or (-15% + 6%), if rates rose by 1%. However, if interest rates fell by 1%, the 15-year bond would rise more than the 10-year bond.
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Marriott Hotels Debut in West Africa with the opening of Accra Marriott Hotel, Ghana

208 Room Hotel Brings Modern, Elegant Design, And an Elevated Guest Experience to The Progressive Capital City

ACCRA, Ghana, April 30, 2018/ -- Marriott Hotels (www.MarriottHotels.com), part of Marriott International, today announced its debut in West Africa, with the highly anticipated opening of Accra Marriott Hotel (www.AccraMarriott.com). Owned by African Hospitality Limited, the hotel is strategically located opposite the Kotoka International Airport, making it the perfect “Gateway to West Africa”. Set in the heart of Airport City, a burgeoning urban development, the Accra Marriott Hotel is just a few kilometers outside of the central business district providing easy access to major corporate businesses, government entities and well known city landmarks.

“We are thrilled to open the Accra Marriott Hotel, a highly anticipated addition to our Africa portfolio and a significant milestone in our journey” said Alex Kyriakidis, President and Managing Director, Middle East and Africa, Marriott International. “Accra is the heartbeat of Ghana, a dynamic city bustling with energy. A commercial, manufacturing, and communications center with great shopping and excellent nightlife, it makes an interesting travel destination both for business and for leisure. The Accra Marriott Hotel will add to the city’s maturing hospitality scene, inspiring guests with more forward-thinking experiences and aesthetically inspiring spaces that speak to their inventive nature.”

With 208 well-appointed rooms, 3 enticing dining venues, 800 square meters of meeting space, a pool and a fully equipped fitness center, Accra Marriott Hotel offers state-of-the-art business facilities. Contemporary design and local touches blend to create a distinct and vibrant aesthetic. Amenity-filled guest rooms, progressive dining, cutting edge technology, flexible and exemplary meeting facilities and a brand new social event experience make every guest stay special, while innovative spaces, such as The Greatroom, allow guests to seamlessly blend work and play. Modern and sophisticated in its approach, providing experiences that keep the mind balanced, sharp and inspired, the hotel is the ideal starting point for travelers to do their business or discover the bustling city of Accra.

Boldly transforming itself for mobile and global travelers, Marriott Hotels inspires brilliance leading the industry with innovations. At Marriott Accra Hotel, guests can experience the ease of mobile check in and enjoy an elevated guest experience through Mobile Guest Services, seamlessly delivered with the globally renowned Marriott Hotels service.

To find out more about the hotel visit www.AccraMarriott.com and stay connected on Facebook.

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of Marriott International, Inc..

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About Marriott Hotels
With over 500 hotels and resorts in 59 countries and territories around the world, Marriott Hotels (www.MarriottHotels.com) is evolving travel through every aspect of the guest's stay, enabling the next generation to Travel Brilliantly. Boldly transforming itself for mobile and global travelers who blend work and play, Marriott leads the industry with innovations, including the Greatroom lobby and Mobile Guest Services that elevates style & design and technology. Marriott Hotels is proud to participate in the industry’s award-winning loyalty program, Marriott Rewards® which includes The Ritz-Carlton Rewards®. Members can now link accounts with Starwood Preferred Guest® at Members.Marriott.com for instant elite status matching and unlimited points transfer. To learn more, visit www.MarriottHotels.com. Stay connected to Marriott Hotels on Facebook (https://goo.gl/4dmxjV), @Marriott on Twitter and @Marriotthotels on Instagram.

About Marriott International, Inc.
Marriott International, Inc. (NASDAQ: MAR) (www.Marriott.com) is based in Bethesda, Maryland, USA, and encompasses a portfolio of more than 6,500 properties in 30 leading hotel brands spanning 127 countries and territories. Marriott International operates and franchises hotels and licenses vacation ownership resorts all around the world. The company also operates award-winning loyalty programs: Marriott Rewards®, which includes The Ritz-Carlton Rewards®, and Starwood Preferred Guest®. For more information, please visit our website at www.Marriott.com, and for the latest company news, visit www.MarriottNewsCenter.com. In addition, connect with us on Facebook and @MarriottIntl on Twitter (https://goo.gl/e6kpSn) and Instagram (https://goo.gl/sxiPXZ).

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Merck Foundation connects Africa to Asia to build the Cancer and Fertility Care capacity in the two continents

Merck Foundation in partnership with Manipal Academy of Higher Education (MAHE) launched Merck Embryology Training Program, a certificate course in Assistive Reproduction and Embryology through its ‘Merck More Than a Mother’ campaign

MUMBAI, India, April 30, 2018/ --

    Merck Foundation and Tata Memorial Centre(TMC) signed an MOU to build Cancer Care Capacity in Africa.


•    Through its partnership with TMC, Merck Foundation aims to provide one & two-year oncology fellowship training for African doctors.


•    Merck Foundation and Manipal Academy of Higher Education (MAHE) signed MoU to train Embryologists from Africa and Asia, as part of “Merck more than a Mother”


Merck Foundation (www.Merck-Foundation.com), the philanthropic arm of Merck KGaA Germany(www.Merck.com), commits to building Cancer care capacity in Africa and Asia through its partnership with India. This initiative is a part of Merck Foundation’s ‘Merck Cancer Access Program’ that has been initiated by the Merck Foundation to increase the limited number of oncologists across Africa.

The Foundation signed an MOU with the Tata Memorial centre (https://tmc.gov.in), a premier cancer centre in India, to provide fellowship program to Africa candidates.

Dr. Rasha Kelej, CEO of Merck Foundation said,” We are delighted to formalize today our collaboration with the Tata Memorial centre under the umbrella of newly launched Merck Foundation. We have started our collaboration in 2016, during these two years, we have provided more than 30 African doctors with one-year oncology fellowship at Tata Memorial Centre.We believe that our partnership with India has a long way to go and together we can play a vital role in Africa and Asia.”

“Merck foundation strongly believe that building capacity is the right strategy to improve cancer care since lack of professional skills is the key challenge in Africa and developing countries.” Dr. Rasha Kelej added.

During the signing of MOU with Manipal Academy of Higher Education, to partner in providing embryology training program for Africa and Asia. Merck Foundation in partnership with MAHE launched Merck Embryology Training Program, a certified course in Assistive Reproduction and Embryology through its ‘Merck More Than a Mother’ campaign.

During the event Dr. Rasha Kelej stated that, “We are pleased to partner with the Manipal Academy of Higher Education in India to provide hands-on practical training to develop embryologists’ platform in Africa and Asia to increase the number of standalone embryologists, and to improve the access to cost-effective fertility care in the developing countries, since the lack of trained and skilled health personnel is the main challenge in Africa and Asia.”

In 2017 alone, MF initiated the following activities in partnership with academia, ministries of health and the offices of First Ladies in more than 35 countries:

    Merck Cancer Access Program:



Over 30 African physicians received oncology fellowship programmes spanning one to two years, in a bid to help increase the limited number of oncologists in Africa.

    Merck More Than A Mother:



More than 50 candidates received training to be embryologists and fertility specialists in Africa and Asia to improve quality, regulated and safe fertility care in developing countries.

    Merck Diabetes and Hypertension Awards:



Over 50 medical postgraduates will receive a in diabetes or preventive cardiovascular medicines, as part of the effort to establish a of diabetes and hypertension experts in Africa and Asia.

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of Merck Foundation.

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Sakshi.Tyagi@External.MerckGroup.com

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The Merck Foundation (www.Merck-Foundation.com), established in 2017, is a philanthropic organization that aims to improve the health and wellbeing of people and advance their lives through science and technology. Our efforts are primarily focused on improving access to innovative healthcare solutions in underserved communities, building healthcare and scientific research capacity and empowering people in STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics) with a special focus on women and youth. All Merck Foundation press releases are distributed by e-mail at the same time they become available on the Merck Foundation Website. Please go to www.Merck-Foundation.com to read more and/or register online to interact and exchange experience with our registered members.

About Merck
Merck (www.Merck.com) is a leading science and technology company in healthcare, life science and performance materials. Around 50,000 employees work to further develop technologies that improve and enhance life – from biopharmaceutical therapies to treat cancer or multiple sclerosis, cutting-edge systems for scientific research and production, to liquid crystals for smartphones and LCD televisions. In 2016, Merck generated sales of € 15.0 billion in 66 countries.
Founded in 1668, Merck is the world's oldest pharmaceutical and chemical company. The founding family remains the majority owner of the publicly listed corporate group. Merck holds the global rights to the Merck name and brand. The only exceptions are the United States and Canada, where the company operates as EMD Serono, MilliporeSigma and EMD Performance Materials.

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The Conversation/Andrew Schmulow: South Africa joins the club that regulates financial markets through ‘Twin Peaks’

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South Africa joins the club that regulates financial markets through ‘Twin Peaks’
April 29, 2018 11.00am SAST
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    Andrew Schmulow

    Senior Lecturer, Faculty of Law, University of Western Australia

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Dr Andy Schmulow consults to Datta Burton and Associates. He is affiliated with Australian Citizens Against Corruption (ACAC), is an Executive Member of the Board of the Australian Law and Economics Association, and a committee member of the Banking and Finance Law and Studies Association (BFSLA) and the American Council on Consumer Interests (ACCI). He provides on-going ad hoc advice to members of the Australian Federal Parliament, principally in the Labor Party. He is currently a member of an expert panel of advisors convened to provide South Africa's National Treasury with advice on the drafting of the Conduct of Financial Institutions Bill, and made a series of submissions during the drafting of the Financial Sector Regulation Act.
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South Africa is preparing the ground to migrate to a new way of regulating its banks and financial markets. Known as the Twin Peaks model, the decision has sparked debate, even controversy.

So what is Twin Peaks? And what’s all the fuss about?

The name Twin Peaks was adopted in 1995 by Dr Michael Taylor, who at the time was an official with the Bank of England. The name was a riff on the popular US mystery horror television mini-series created by David Lynch.

In a seminal paper published that year, Taylor set about unpacking the failings of the way banks and the financial markets were regulated in the UK. Regulation was based on a sectoral model – that is on the assumption that banks should be regulated separately from other kinds of financial institutions such as insurers. This model was used in most countries in the world at the time. It was applied in South Africa until 1 April 2018.

Twenty three years ago Taylor argued that the sectoral model was no longer fit for purpose. It was an anachronism. A throw-back to the days when there were clear delineations between different types of firms in the financial sector – banks, insurers, securities issuers. But when those firms began to amalgamate, the new firms that were created presented a problem for regulators whose authority was divided along lines that mirrored the division between banks, insurers and other financial firms. Taylor referred to this as a

    blurring of the boundaries.

His observations were prescient. Even though his suggestions were rejected at the time, the intervening years – particularly the impact of the financial crisis in 2008 – have underscored the need for a rethink of how financial institutions are regulated. South Africa is in the process of catching up with what has become a growing trend.

Instead of having a separate regulator just for banks, the new system creates two peaks: one is now responsible for regulating to prevent financial crises (the prudential regulation peak), the other to ensure good market conduct and consumer protection (the good conduct peak).

South Africa has gone a few steps further to lay the foundation for a four peak model. This is because it envisages a role for the Reserve Bank in preventing financial crises as well as a role for the National Credit Regulator which already exists to protect consumers of credit.
The history

Taylor’s proposal was initially rejected in the UK. Instead the country’s government adopted the mega-regulator model, which brought all firms in the financial services sector under one umbrella. The International Monetary Fund touted this as the superior solution. Then came the global financial crisis in 2008.

The UK’s mega-regulator was abandoned as a disaster in the aftermath of the crisis and the collapse of Northern Rock. A joint House of Lords, House of Commons inquiry identified catastrophic failures by the country’s then regulator, the Financial Services Authority. It painted a picture of a regulator that had poor crisis management, and which had prioritised regulating business conduct over prudential regulation - regulations that are designed to force banks to act prudently, chiefly through making sure they have a minimum capital buffer.

The crisis, and the events it set in motion, led to a much deeper understanding of the tension between trying to enforce prudential regulation on the one hand, and protecting consumers on the other. The two functions are frequently mutually incompatible. And the failings of the mega-regulator showed that one was invariably sacrificed in favour of the other.

More often than not, when faced with a choice between helping several thousand aggrieved consumers, or avoiding a financial crisis, most regulators will choose to avoid a financial crisis - systemic failure in the system. Consumers – especially the most vulnerable consumers – are left unprotected. From a policy perspective, that’s a poor outcome.

But after the global financial crisis, and the sub-prime disaster that initiated it, we understand also that market misconduct and consumer abuse, when practised at scale, can become their own source of financial crisis.
How Twin Peaks helps

Twin Peaks is the only model that separates oversight into two independent regulators – market conduct and consumer protection on the one hand, and prudential regulation on the other. It envisions two regulators created as equals, with clear and unambiguous remits: one ensuring a sound and robust financial system, the other ensuring that the financial system is not distorted through market misconduct, while also protecting consumers of financial services and goods.

Twin Peaks was also the first regulatory model to adopt the view that a range of financial institutions – not just banks but also insurers - should be subject to regulations that would ensure they were fit for purpose, and could withstand a crisis. After the near collapse of the large US insurer AIG in 2008, and its US$ 182 billion bail-out, we now understand that some insurers are systemically important – that means that their collapse can lead to a domino effect of collapsing firms, and ultimately the market imploding. Prior to AIG’s collapse the assumption had been that only banks carried this level of risk to the system.

In the post-2008 world there is general acceptance that countries need to draw up much more specific terms and conditions for firms in the financial sector. Those terms and conditions are the basis of regulations to protect big firms from financial distress, because if they fail, taxpayers will be forced to step in and save them. In return, taxpayers have a right to impose regulations that will discourage conduct likely to lead to firms failing.

It’s appropriate that South Africa’s highly-advanced and sophisticated financial services sector should be regulated under an architecture that is fit for the present and the future.

Enforcement will be key. Twin Peaks can facilitate better enforcement, but doesn’t guarantee it.

This is one article in a series on the implementation of Twin Peaks in South Africa as well as difficulties the model is facing in Australia.

    Northern Rock
    South Africa
    House of Commons
    House of Lords
    Twin Peaks
    South African Reserve Bank
    Systemic Risk
    Bank regulation

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    Thomas Johnson

    What you say about South Africa’s regulating agencies are well and good. But across the board they don’t have a good reputation in meeting their mandated objectives of protecting the consumer. For many it’s a case of a bridge to far. And that includes the National Credit Regulator.
    3 hours ago
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The Conversation/Stephen Onyeiwu: What Buhari and Trump stand to gain from state visit

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What Buhari and Trump stand to gain from state visit
April 29, 2018 10.51am SAST
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    Stephen Onyeiwu

    Professor and Chair of the Economics Department, Allegheny College

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Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari heads to the White House. EPA/Frank Augstein

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Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari’s visit to the Obama White House three years ago was ecstatic. By contrast, his visit this week to the Trump White House will be awkward. This time around, his host is a president who has referred to African states as “shithole countries” and remarked that Nigerians would never want to leave the US to “go back to their huts”.

Given Trump’s unpalatable statements about Africans in general, and Nigerians in particular, it’s fair to wonder why Trump invited the leader of a country he despises so much for a state visit. And also why Buhari accepted the invitation.

One answer is that the meeting offers both leaders a platform to promote their various political goals. Trump could use the occasion to showcase his credentials as an indefatigable fighter against terrorism. And he could pledge to help Buhari defeat Boko Haram in northern Nigeria, much as he has done with ISIS in Syria and Iraq.

For his part, Buhari is headed for a tough re-election bid a year from now and may believe that a visit to the White House could boost his international profile. His prolonged absence from office last year due to illness led some observers to believe that Nigeria had abandoned its role as a leading voice for Africa.

It’s not inconceivable that Buhari’s visit to the White House has little to do with economic relations, but more about the political gains both leaders can make. Buhari’s US visit comes on the heels of a recent visit to Downing Street, and will soon be followed by another visit to the Elysee Palace.

What must not be forgotten is that US dependence on Nigerian oil has increased dramatically with imports jumping threefold in 2016 driven by uncertainties in Iran and Venezuela. This suggests that both countries have a common interest in maintaining a close relationship.
What will be on offer

One deal that’s likely to be consummated during the meeting is the planned sale of up to 12 Embraer A-29 Super Tucano attack planes to the Nigerian Air force for about USD$600 million to help fight Boko Haram. Trump is also likely to announce the deployment of more military advisers to assist Nigeria in fighting Boko Haram.

But fighting Boko Haram requires much more. As the commander of the US Africa Command, General Thomas D. Waldhauser, recently observed,

    Unrest within West Africa is driven by local grievances, corruption and weak governance, human rights violations, and imported religious ideology.

Buhari could also do with substantial non-military assistance. In particular, he needs help to address two huge social problems in Nigeria: the fact that 70% of Nigerians live in abject poverty, and that more than 50% of the country’s young people are jobless.

But Buhari should not count on Trump to increase aid for the kind of economic transformation the country needs. In the 2017 financial year, the US budgeted a mere USD$608 million in foreign assistance to Nigeria, a number which eerily echoes the price tag for the 12 fighter jets Nigeria wants to buy.

US assistance is unlikely to increase for two main reasons. First, Trump is pursuing his “America First” philosophy and has vowed to slash its foreign aid budget. In 2017, the budget was USD$34 billion, or 0.2 percent of US budget, out of which Africa received 21%.

The other reason the aid taps are unlikely to be opened is that Trump has threatened to withhold aid to countries that supported the UN resolution condemning his administration’s decision to recognise Jerusalem as Israel’s capital. Nigeria is one of the several African countries that voted for the resolution.
Trade

Nigeria is America’s 56th largest goods trading partner. The US exported goods worth USD$1.9 billion in 2016, and imported goods worth USD$4.2 billion that year, leaving the US with a trade deficit of USD$2.3 billion with Nigeria. But these numbers are deceptive because US imports are made up mainly of crude oil. Stripping out the oil, the US would have had a trade surplus of USD$1.7 billion in 2016.

To alleviate poverty and create jobs Nigeria needs to export more non-oil products to the US. At the very least, Buhari should press Trump to strengthen the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) enacted in 2000 to facilitate the access of African exporters to the US market. Nigeria was the leading AGOA exporter in 2016, with over USD$2 billion worth of exports under the Act.

There are fears that Trump might jettison the Act, or weaken some of its provisions that he deems inimical to his “America First” philosophy. Buhari should defend it unequivocally.

And he should tell Trump that Nigeria needs more US foreign direct investment. In 2016 the number was USD$3.8 billion in 2016, far less than the USD$13 billion the Chinese invested in Nigeria in the same year.
Business as usual

The US-Nigeria relationship has historically been driven less by economics, but more by convenience and indifference. While Nigerian presidents covet a visit to the White House, US presidents tend to be indifferent, and sometimes passive, about Nigerian affairs.

An example is the blind eye various US administrations turned as successive military dictators presided over Nigeria for three decades. Some of those dictators managed to stash their ill-gotten wealth in US financial institutions. I suspect that Buhari will be asking Trump to help repatriate some of those illicit funds. Whether Buhari also gets to ask Trump to commit to trade and investment, and not fighter jets, remains to be seen.

    Boko Haram
    Donald Trump
    Muhammadu Buhari
    Biafra
    "America First"

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