When he took power in 2017, Austria’s Sebastian Kurz
became the European Union’s youngest head of government. In May, he also
became the shortest-serving chancellor in Austrian history and the
first to be thrown out of office since the country was reconstituted
after World War II. Now he’s trying to win re-election,
and the Sept. 29 contest is becoming a test of voters’ faith in his
leadership skills and his mix of populism and right-leaning centrism.
1. Why was Kurz ousted from office?
It all had to do with a leaked video
showing one of his coalition partners behaving unethically. Filmed in
the Spanish resort island of Ibiza in 2017, before the previous
election, the excerpts made from a seven-hour recording showed
Heinz-Christian Strache, then head of Austria’s far-right Freedom Party,
promising state contracts for cash to a woman claiming to be a Russian
oligarch’s niece and plotting with her to take over Austria’s largest
tabloid newspaper.
2. Why did that affect Kurz?
Because
he’s the one who, shortly after winning election in 2017, raised
eyebrows by inviting Strache’s party into a governing coalition. The
Freedom Party was founded by ex-Nazis in the 1950s and today advocates
strict controls on immigration and rejects Islam. Strache resigned as
vice chancellor one day after the Ibiza video was released in German
media, raising hopes in his party that the coalition with Kurz could be
saved. But when Kurz also demanded the resignation of another hard-line
minister, the Freedom Party quit the coalition. That brought down Kurz’s government, creating the need for another election.
3. Can Kurz win again?
There were concerns that voters might blame the young
chancellor for having brought the Freedom Party into his government and
accorded it mainstream respectability. But the opposite happened in the wake of the video scandal: support for Kurz’s People’s Party rose in opinion polls and remains around 35%,
some 3 percentage points above its share of the 2017 vote. He is still
the most popular politician among those running for chancellor.
4. What has become of the Freedom Party?
Its support in polls dipped to around 20% from around 25% after the Ibiza video. While its hardcore base
of supporters proved immune, much in the way die-hard fans of U.S.
President Donald Trump are unfazed by his travails, the scandal has
impaired the party’s reputation and credibility beyond its own
followers. That limits its prospects as a future government partner. A
smoldering internal rift between the party’s hardcore and moderate wings
may also deepen after the election.
Kurz Widened Lead After Ibiza
Freedom Party holds up despite scandal, Social Democrats fail to gain
Source: Opinion polls published by Austrian media
5. Is the opposition gaining any ground?
Some opposition parties are, especially the Greens, who are set to return to Parliament with an added boost from public concern over climate change. The biggest opposition party, the center-left Social Democrats, who led Austria’s governments for all but nine years
since 1970, botched their reaction to the Ibiza scandal and were unable
to profit from it. The party overplayed its hand by trying to pin the
blame on Kurz, then joined forces with the arch-rival Freedom Party to
bring him down. That cost the Social Democrats popular support, and they look set to lose votes compared to 2017. Some polls predict they could fall behind the Freedom Party.
6. What does that mean for the next government?
Kurz
hasn’t ruled out resuming a coalition with the Freedom Party should he
win. But he would be under greater pressure than two years ago to
explore other alternatives first. He could revive his party’s
longstanding alliance with the Social Democrats -- the default
combination in Austria’s post-war governments -- or possibly the Greens.
The business-friendly Neos party
might also be an option, but only in a three-way coalition because its
share isn’t likely to be enough to give Kurz a majority. The Social
Democrats could try to form a government that bypasses Kurz, but that
wouldn’t be easy because they’ve ruled out cooperation with the Freedom
Party.
7. Where does Austria go from here?
The refugee crisis that framed Kurz’s rise to power
is less pronounced in the current campaign, which has been dominated by
follow-up debates around the Ibiza scandal and questions about campaign
budget rules and the influence of party donors. Other election issues
include climate policy, funding for the rising costs of elderly care,
and tax and health reforms. However, if Kurz returns as chancellor, as polls suggest, he’s unlikely to drop his trademark hard line on immigration and may resume plans that had to be shelved when his previous government collapsed.
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