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Today's WorldView: Is Brazil about to elect its own Trump? Inbox
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Today's WorldView
Edited by Max J. Rosenthal and Ruby Mellen
BY ISHAAN THAROOR
BY ISHAAN THAROOR
Is Brazil about to elect its own Trump?
We’re entering the run-up to perhaps the most important election in the Western Hemisphere this year. Next month, Brazilians will elect new governors and legislatures in each of the country’s 27 states; all 513 members of the lower house of Congress; some two-thirds of the Senate; and, most importantly, a new president.
The first round of the presidential election will be held on Oct. 7. For now, there’s only one politician who most expect to qualify for the two-candidate runoff on Oct. 28: 63-year-old Jair Bolsonaro, a far-right nationalist whose ascent echoes the rise of right-wing populists across the West, including that of President Trump.
Brazil has been wracked by years of tumult: A vast corruption scandal has caused presidential impeachments and rolling political feuds. Economic havoc has led to a recession and millions of Brazilians are backsliding into poverty. Meanwhile, crime rates have soared.
But, despite the mounting public anger and waves of mass protests that have hit the country’s major cities, little has fundamentally changed. While some establishment politicians are now in jail, dozens of others implicated in allegations of graft may win reelection to their seats in Congress. A poll last year found that only 13 percent of Brazilians were satisfied with their democracy.
That backdrop has given Bolsonaro, a former army captain who eked out most of his career on the fringes of politics, his moment to shine. Like Trump, Bolsonaro has marshaled widespread disaffection to build a viral, anti-establishment movement. He, too, promises sweeping, bludgeoning reform — including the privatization of major state-owned companies — while pandering to a socially conservative base of voters, particularly an increasingly influential bloc of evangelical Christians. His campaign has, at least informally, sought the counsel of former Trump adviser Stephen K. Bannon. And Bolsonaro himself has welcomed comparisons to the U.S. president, whom he hails for challenging “political correctness” and the “rotten media” elite.
Bolsonaro’s supporters see him as a “messiah” who will make Brazil great again. Others are not so convinced. A new cover story in the Economist branded the populist front-runner as “Latin America’s latest menace.”
Two weeks ago, Bolsonaro survived a near-fatal stabbing attack while on the campaign trail. The ordeal added to his sense of epochal purpose. “What’s at stake? It’s not my future,” said the wounded candidate, speaking from his São Paolo hospital bed. “We live in a time when the future of more than 200 million Brazilians is at stake."
Meanwhile, Bolsonaro’s critics — and there are many — point to the rather unseemly side of his politics. Brazil’s top court recently ruled he would not have to stand trial for racist remarks he made during a speech in 2017, during which he said “that members of rural settlements founded by the descendants of slaves, called ‘quilombolas,’ are ‘not good even to procreate,'” according to the Associated Press. “He also talked about the weight of those slave descendants using a measure that Brazilian farmers apply to animals.”
Bolsonaro does still have to go to court over accusations of slander and incitement to rape, dating back to a 2014 incident when he attacked a left-leaning congresswoman, saying he would not rape her because she was ugly and “didn’t deserve it.”
He’s also well-known for his disparagement of LGBT Brazilians: Bolsonaro has said he would prefer a dead son to a gay one and has likened the right of gay couples to adopt to pedophilia. He has attacked immigrants as “scum” and has proposed selling off the lands of indigenous Brazilians.
Unsurprisingly, Bolsonaro’s backers have framed his grossly offensive rhetoric as plain-speaking banter meant to cut through the platitudes of the corrupt and out-of-touch political class.
Arrayed against Bolsonaro is a cast of centrist and center-left challengers. One potential opponent in the second round is Fernando Haddad, a former mayor of São Paolo and a key figure within the left-leaning Workers Party. Haddad was tapped to run by popular former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who languishes behind bars on a corruption conviction his supporters insist is politically motivated.
A Bolsonaro vs. Haddad showdown raises the prospect of a bitter left vs. right clash. “Many thought that by the time we got close to the election, some middle ground would be found, and that is not what we are seeing,” said Monica de Bolle, director of Latin American studies program at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, to Reuters.
To the alarm of his opponents, Bolsonaro has spoken admiringly of Brazil’s brutal military dictatorship, which ruled for multiple decades and disappeared and tortured countless leftist dissidents. His running mate, retired army general Hamilton Mourão, has even floated the idea of a coup against the judiciary and rewriting Brazil’s constitution to constrain civil liberties.
“Bolsonaro represents a new brand of populism in Latin America, one that returns to its fascist origins across the world,” wrote Federico Finchelstein, a historian at the New School. “Bolsonaro’s rise should serve as a reminder that we are experiencing a worldwide crisis of democracy, one not limited to Trumpism or the rise of the extreme right in Europe.”
“If Brazil falls, if Brazil goes authoritarian, I would worry a lot about the rest of the region,” Harvard political scientist Steven Levitsky said to HuffPost. “People in Latin America ― militaries in Latin America, demagogues and democrats in Latin America ― will be paying close attention to Brazil. It would have devastating regional consequences.”
Like far-right leaders in Europe, Bolsonaro could still stumble at the final hurdle, with a critical mass uniting against him in the second round. “The ‘outsider’ option seems particularly attractive to many citizens. In Brazil, the ‘outsider’ candidate will probably make it to the second round,” noted Felipe Krause and Andre Borges in The Post’s Monkey Cage blog, before pointing to centrist French leaders who beat back far-right challenges. “But the nation’s constraints on extremists suggest whoever else reaches that round will be Brazil’s Jacques Chirac or Emmanuel Macron.”
Still, in an era of virulent nationalist rage, it would be naive to count Bolsonaro out.
• The Economist runs through the other major candidates in the Brazilian presidential race:
“Mr Haddad, his likeliest opponent in the second round, has a bigger party behind him and was a successful mayor. He promises to put debt ‘on a downward path.’ But his party is less reform-minded than he is. He will struggle to shake the perception that he is Lula’s puppet.
"The other main candidates are less polarizing, and less likely to push voters into the arms of Mr Bolsonaro in the run-off. All have drawbacks. Ciro Gomes, a left-wing former governor of the north-eastern state of Ceará, favours interventionist policies of the sort that aggravated Brazil’s economic crisis, such as subsidized lending.
"Two centrists are mirror images of each other. Geraldo Alckmin, a former governor of the state of São Paulo, is competent and backed by an enormous coalition, which bodes well for his ability to enact economic reforms. But he is colorless and belongs to the Party of Brazilian Social Democracy (PSDB), which is among the most tarnished by Lava Jato [or ‘Car Wash,’ the major corruption scandal that roiled Brazilian politics]. More inspiring is Marina Silva, a former environment minister who was born into an illiterate rubber-tapping family in the Amazon and learned to read when she was 16. Ms Silva shares Mr Bolsonaro’s unwillingness to engage in pork-barrel politics, which will make governing hard. She is more likely than the populist to stick to her resolve.”
• British Prime Minister Theresa May failed to win European support for her compromise proposals on a deal that could pave the way for Britain’s exit from the European Union. The Post's London bureau chief, William Booth, has more:
“The beleaguered British leader was in Salzburg, Austria, to try to convince a tough audience that the United Kingdom could remain so closely aligned with European Union rules and regulations that it would allow for the continuation of 'frictionless' trade the modern economy is built upon.
"She was also asking for more time to solve the thorny issue of what to do about the border between Northern Ireland, which remains a part of the United Kingdom, and Ireland, which is a member of the European Union.
"May faces opposition from not only a hard-bargaining Europe, which does not want to make it too appealing for members to leave their club, but also her own Conservative Party, populated by hard-line Brexiteers such as former foreign secretary Boris Johnson, who disparages the prime minister’s exit plan as a weak capitulation to Brussels…
"Speaking to the media in Salzburg on Thursday, French President Emmanuel Macron said the staunch Brexit backers had deceived the British people, promising them a windfall of funds and a painless exit.
"Brexit was pushed by those ‘who predicted easy solutions,’ Macron said. ‘Those people are liars. They left the next day so they didn’t have to manage it.’”
• North Korean leader Kim Jong Un wants to hold a second summit with President Trump to speed up the denuclearization process, according to South Korean President Moon Jae-in. My colleagues report on what may follow:
“Cheong Seong-chang, a North Korea expert at the Sejong Institute near Seoul, said the announcement shows that Kim has much more specific ideas now about denuclearization and what he wants in return. He added that the next summit should produce more specific results.
"‘The first meeting between Kim Jong Un and Trump yielded a rather general agreement, but now Kim seems to have a more concrete idea about what he wants to exchange with Trump,’ Cheong said. ‘Given how Kim recently suggested a specific timetable for denuclearization, a more concrete agreement than the one in Singapore is expected to come out in the next summit.’
"The Korean War ended in 1953 with an armistice rather than a peace treaty. North Korea wants South Korea and the United States to declare the war to be formally over, as a sign that hostilities have ended and to build trust…
"Members of Trump’s administration are concerned that such a declaration could be used to undermine the justification for the presence of U.S. forces in South Korea, politically if not legally.”
People shop at fake designer handbag stalls in Beijing's famous Silk Alley market on June 11, 2006. (Peter Parks/AFP/Getty Images)</p>
People shop at fake designer handbag stalls in Beijing's famous Silk Alley market on June 11, 2006. (Peter Parks/AFP/Getty Images)
The Winners
It’s a good time to work in the fake-handbag business. The shadow industry — already a big moneymaker — stands to reap another potential windfall from the U.S.-China trade war, which escalated this week.
Knockoffs of famous brands — Coach, Kate Spade and others — are mostly made in China and arrive at U.S. shores through clandestine channels built to dodge authorities. The authentic purses and their components, also made in China, are shipped through official routes and would face Trump’s proposed new duties of 10 percent effective next Monday.
This all stacks up in favor of the counterfeit labels at every step of their illicit journey: from factory floors in China to street vendors in cities worldwide.
If prices for brand-name bags swell on international markets because of tariffs, one vendor predicts it can only be good for Chinese knockoffs. “More people will think: ‘Why not just buy a bag here?’ ” said Lulu, who agreed to an interview using only her nickname to stay under the radar.
The global counterfeit trade for all items, from purses to electronics to software, is worth $461 billion, according to the latest estimate by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. That is more than the global drug trade. Vendors in China can earn between $730 and $1,200 per month, depending on demand. That’s good money in a country where workers on average earn $8,250 annually, according to World Bank data.
Meanwhile, American designers are fighting back. Handbag designer Rebecca Minkoff testified to the U.S. trade representative that Trump’s tariffs would hurt her namesake brand. New duties on handbags, Minkoff wrote, “will only ennoble the bad actors in the Chinese economy who pose a genuine threat to our business via bad faith registrations of our recognized trademarks.”
Beijing has pledged over the years to crack down on the fakers, but some say authorities may not take their job too seriously because local vendors rely on the income.
When hundreds of African delegates visited Beijing in September for an economic summit, merchants told The Post that security had tightened so they did not have their goods on display. Instead, they led buyers to unmarked apartments down a nearby alley with closets full of knockoff Gucci, Prada, Michael Kors and Louis Vuitton handbags. Merchants encouraged foreign customers to share their social media usernames with friends back home. They were happy to take international orders. — Danielle Paquette
Jack Ma, founder and executive chairman of Alibaba Group, and then-president-elect Donald Trump after their meeting at Trump Tower on January 9, 2017. (Timothy A. Clary/AFP/Getty Images)</p>
Jack Ma, founder and executive chairman of Alibaba Group, and then-president-elect Donald Trump after their meeting at Trump Tower on January 9, 2017. (Timothy A. Clary/AFP/Getty Images)
…And the losers
Chinese technology titan Jack Ma made a bold promise: His e-commerce giant Alibaba would help Donald Trump create a million American jobs. But now Ma has scrapped the pledge, saying the escalating trade war has wrecked it. Analysts say this retraction would have been a loss for America’s workforce — if Ma’s offer had been serious in the first place.
“It’s pretty obvious that Ma’s original pledge was political theatrics, not a serious promise,” said Arthur Kroeber, a founding partner at the Beijing consultancy Gavekal Dragonomics.
The pledge from Alibaba — Asia’s largest online retailer, valued at $500 billion —followed Ma’s high-profile visit to Trump Tower in January 2017, where, according to Trump administration officials at the time, Trump and the Chinese businessman discussed how Alibaba “can create 1 million U.S. jobs by enabling 1 million U.S. small businesses to sell goods into the China and the Asian marketplace.”
Ma had said he wanted to boost small businesses, particularly in the Midwest, and help farmers and clothing makers connect to a larger market.
Right away, it was clear: These would not be direct jobs — Alibaba employs a comparatively minuscule 66,000 or so full-time workers. Rather, Ma forecast the company would allow U.S. sellers to reach more Chinese consumers, fueling a spike in entrepreneurial employment.
Data on jobs tied to trade tell a different story.
U.S. exports of goods and services to China would have to rise a staggering $206 billion in order to create a million more American jobs, according to figures from the Commerce Department. Trump embraced Ma’s promise as an early win for his administration.
“Jack and I are going to do some great things,” Trump told reporters.
China business observers, however, raised an eyebrow.
“Theatrics,” Duncan Clark, author of “Alibaba: The House That Jack Ma Built,” told The Washington Post a year ago.
“Jack Ma is a master of marketing and very adept political operator,” said James McGregor, chairman of the greater China region for the consultancy APCO Worldwide.
As the commercial battle intensified this month, Ma announced he planned to step down next year from his role as chairman at Alibaba. He said the increasingly chaotic international business climate had nothing to do with it. — Danielle Paquette
Brexit negotiations are down to the wire and it's still not clear what kind of deal will come into fruition. A column in Politico argues a vague agreement for agreement's sake would hurt both sides, and one in Der Spiegel lays out the dangers of coming to no deal at all. Meanwhile, an op-ed in The Post says the most recent political shakeup in Germany doesn't bode well for its leader, Angela Merkel, and the Atlantic looks at how President Trump has changed the U.S. approach to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.
Just say no to a ‘blindfold Brexit’
Fudging the hard details undermines those trying to stop the U.K. from leaving the EU.
By Hugo Dixon | Politico • Read more »
Countdown to Brexit
No deal might be the worst deal of all.
By Peter Müller and Jörg Schindler | Der Spiegel • Read more »
A power struggle in Berlin masquerades as a war between good and evil
A farce worthy of Monty Python and "Saturday Night Live."
By Josef Joffe | The Washington Post • Read more »
Trump Is reinventing the U.S. Approach to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict
Instead of acknowledging the political and national aspirations of the Palestinians, negotiators are focusing on material and economic concerns.
By Robert Malley and Aaron David Miller | The Atlantic • Read more »
Six years ago, Golf Digest profiled a convicted murderer who continuously sent them beautifully drawn landscapes of golf courses. On Wednesday Valentino Dixon walked free, after the magazine helped launch an investigation into what it thought was a flimsy conviction. Elsewhere, a mysteriously missing Red Sox banner is returned to Fenway Park, and in Rye, New York, a police officer attempted to transport a dead whale in a dumpster. That was a mistake, he later said.
For Valentino Dixon, a wrong righted
With an investigation Golf Digest helped open, an Erie County court vacated a murder charge against Valentino Dixon, for which he had already served 27 years.
By Max Adler | Golf Digest • Read more »
Red Sox banner returned
The bizarre case of a Red Sox division title banner that went missing came to an end Wednesday when a Malden man who says he found it in Somerville brought it to Fenway Park.
By Travis Anderson | The Boston Globe • Read more »
Failed Attempt to Put Dead Whale in Dumpster 'Was a Mistake'
"Oh that's just terrible..."
By Katherine Underwood | NBC New York • Read more »
Multiple strong cyclones have paraded across the British Isles, marking an abrupt start to the winter storm season. First it was Helene, the former hurricane that came ashore in the southwest United Kingdom with gusts of 60 to 65 mph on Monday. Then, Storm Ali has proved to be the powerhouse of the bunch. With cleanup from Ali continuing, Storm Bronagh is now moving through and delivering more wind-driven heavy rain. It seems that at least one more large storm will swing by this weekend, as well. (Jeff J. Mitchell/Getty Images)
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