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The Fix Analysis
Rep. Justin Amash sounds like a guy who might just run for president
Amash calls on Americans to reject the two-party system. There’s one obvious way he could actually make a dent in it.
By Aaron Blake
July 4 at 12:02 PM
Rep. Justin Amash is not just leaving the Republican Party; he is making a statement about it. In a Washington Post op-ed — published appropriately on Independence Day — the Michigan congressman says the two-party system is in a “partisan death spiral” and encouraged independent Americans to do something about it.
The question now is whether he will do something about it — or more specifically, whether he will do something that actually has an impact. There is one obvious path available, if he truly has the courage of his convictions: running for president.
Amash’s party switch is a significant moment. It is just the third time a sitting Republican member of Congress has left the party this century and the second time one has become an independent, after Sen. Jim Jeffords (Vt.) in 2001. But while Jeffords’s party switch was seismic, because it shifted the Senate majority to Democrats, the practical effect of Amash’s party switch by itself is likely pretty negligible. He is now the sole independent in a chamber with 435 members. He can keep preaching his nonpartisan gospel to his fellow members and the country, but his platform is limited, and there is no indication anybody is about to follow his lead.
He also is not guaranteed to have his current platform much longer. Ever since becoming the first Republican to say President Trump committed impeachable offenses, he has been an endangered species. One poll showed a Republican state representative beating him in a primary, before the race even really began.
In that context, Amash’s party switch could simply be a matter of course, much like former senator Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.) retiring because he did not think he could win a renomination in Trump’s GOP. Amash’s party switch could ultimately wind up like the third Republican incumbent to leave the party this century, Sen. Arlen Specter (Pa.), who went on to lose in 2010.
Trump alluded to Amash’s personal political concerns in a tweet Thursday morning, saying he “knew he couldn’t get the nomination.”
Great news for the Republican Party as one of the dumbest & most disloyal men in Congress is “quitting” the Party. No Collusion, No Obstruction! Knew he couldn’t get the nomination to run again in the Great State of Michigan. Already being challenged for his seat. A total loser!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) July 4, 2019
Amash’s op-ed is characteristically principled and high-minded.
“We owe it to future generations to stand up for our constitutional republic so that Americans may continue to live free for centuries to come,” Amash wrote. “Preserving liberty means telling the Republican Party and the Democratic Party that we’ll no longer let them play their partisan game at our expense.”
He added: “No matter your circumstance, I’m asking you to join me in rejecting the partisan loyalties and rhetoric that divide and dehumanize us. I’m asking you to believe that we can do better than this two-party system — and to work toward it. If we continue to take America for granted, we will lose it.”
This will sound overly cynical, so I apologize in advance. But this is a nice sentiment that risks being quickly brushed aside — along with Amash himself, perhaps — by an American political system that thrives on partisanship and has for a long time.
Unless, of course, Amash has other plans. He has left open the possibility of running for president as the nominee of the Libertarian Party, which would undoubtedly be glad to have him. He fits the party ideologically, and he would give it a shot at increased relevance in American politics if he ran. It would also provide a potentially huge platform to make the case he makes in his op-ed and actually make a dent in the two-party system.
At the same time, he could have switched to the Libertarian Party on Thursday, and he did not. That does not preclude this eventuality, but it does suggest perhaps he is not there yet. Amash is a principled lawmaker, if there ever was one, and even if he knows running for president could afford him a unique platform, he has to also know the potential pitfalls. Taking a significant share of the vote in 2020 could render him a perceived spoiler — a new Ralph Nader.
If you want to see how that could turn out, look no further than Howard Schultz. His mere flirtation with an independent 2020 bid has enraged Democrats who fear a well-funded independent candidacy (Schultz is a billionaire former Starbucks CEO) could help reelect Trump.
Amash is not Schultz, though. While Schultz struggles to enunciate a policy platform other than “the two major parties are doing it wrong,” Amash has real convictions and an apparent desire to take a stand, even if he cannot win. It is also not entirely clear whether he would take more votes from Trump or the eventual Democratic nominee. While he has been a Republican and a founder of the tea-party-aligned House Freedom Caucus (which he has also left), some early polling suggests his candidacy might actually benefit Trump in Michigan.
So Amash might not necessarily be signing up for the kind of instant abuse Schultz got. But it does seem he is unsure about whether he wants to go there or thinks it is worth it.
“I never stop thinking about these sorts of things,” he told CNN’s Haley Byrd recently about running for president. “It’s not because I have any immediate plans or anything like that, but I never stop thinking about those things because there is a big problem with the current two-party system we have, and someone has to shake it up.”
“Now, is it possible for anyone to shake it up and make a difference?” he added. “I don’t know.”
Now we will see if he really wants to try.
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