Trump ‘hereby’ orders U.S. business out of China. Can he do that?
Some see Trump’s command as more than ‘cheap talk,’ saying he has real tools to encourage compliance.
President
Trump’s extraordinary edict demanding U.S. companies move out of China —
delivered in a series of angry tweets Friday — left industries of every
stripe scrambling to understand how seriously to take the order, and
how the White House might enforce it.
Businesses from retail to electronics to home goods, many already under pressure from a months-long U.S.-China trade war, were contacting their industry associations for guidance and awaiting more substantive announcements from the White House.
“I’m
trying to keep my cool and not get worried and upset, but it’s becoming
hard,” said Magi Raible, founder of LiteGear Bags, a luggage maker
based in Vallejo, Calif.
She has a meeting next
week with an industry colleague to discuss moving more of her
manufacturing from China to India or South Africa, she said.
“I don’t know how much faster I can move or how much more urgency I can have,” she said.
Late
Friday night, as he arrived in France for the G7, Trump suggested on
Twitter he would be looking to the International Emergency Economic
Powers Act, signed into law in 1977, to follow up on his demand.
Trump
does not have the authority to “duly order” companies to leave China,
according to Jennifer Hillman, a Georgetown University law professor and
trade expert at the Council on Foreign Relations.
But
under the law he cited, Trump can prevent future transfers of funds to
China, she said. First, he would have to make "a lawful declaration that
a national emergency exists,” she said.
Congress could terminate the declaration if it wishes, she said.
“Moreover,
even if all this happened, it would not provide authority over all of
the U.S. investments that have already been made in China,” Hillman
said.
Other trade experts said Trump does have powerful tools at his disposal to encourage companies to leave.
They include continuing to hike tariffs on imports from China, as Trump did again
on Friday. The White House could also try to punish companies by
cutting them out of federal procurement deals, economists said.
“The
tweet isn’t entirely cheap talk,” said Derek Scissors, a China expert
at the American Enterprise Institute, a think tank partly funded by
industry.
Trump fired off the tweets after China imposed a new round of retaliatory tariffs on $75 billion worth of American imports Friday.
“We don’t need China
and, frankly, would be far better off without them,” Trump wrote. “… Our
great American companies are hereby ordered to immediately start
looking for an alternative to China, including bringing your companies
HOME and making your products in the USA.”
The
message made public what Trump has been telling companies in private
for more than two years, said William Reinsch, a trade expert at the
Center for Strategic and International Studies.
“The reality is many companies have been thinking about leaving, anyway,” Reinsch said.
“Labor
costs are going up in China, the regime is repressive, and American
companies continue to suffer discrimination,” he added.
Some
apparel and electronics makers have been moving out of China, propelled
lately by the U.S. slapping ever-higher import tariffs on goods made in
China.
But few of these companies have been
moving jobs back to the United States. Instead, they’ve been shifting to
other low-cost countries such as Vietnam or Bangladesh.
Other
industries that would like to leave China say they’ve found it
difficult to find manufacturing of the same quality and low cost
elsewhere.
“Companies
would love to find alternate sources, but it can’t happen overnight,”
said Jonathan Gold, vice president of supply chain and customs policy at
the National Retail Federation. “And even when it does, unfortunately a
lot of that [manufacturing] won’t come back to the United States. We
agree that China has been a bad actor, but we need to get back to the
table and work out a trade deal.”
Some analysts
saw Trump’s tweets as a particularly aggressive move against Apple and
other tech companies, which manufacture many of their goods in China.
Dan Ives of Wedbush Securities called Trump’s command “a clear shot
across the bow at Apple and the semi space,” referring to the
semiconductor sector.
Over decades, Apple has
become intertwined with China’s electronics assembly infrastructure to a
degree that is extremely difficult to undo. In a best-case scenario, it
would take Apple five years to move just half of its iPhone production
out of China, Ives said.
In
many ways, Apple’s rise from an also-ran in the market for personal
computers to one of the most valuable companies on the planet is due to
its partnership with Foxconn, a Taiwanese juggernaut that manufactures
in China.
Apple may have come up with the ideas
for its consumer products, but Foxconn founder Terry Gou made them a
reality, starting in the early 2000s by leveraging China’s manufacturing
prowess to build sleek devices at such low cost that they were also
profitable.
Apple has toyed with assembling
products outside China in the past, building comparatively small numbers
of desktop computers in the United States and exploring iPhone
manufacturing in India and Southeast Asia, but the company remains
highly dependent on China.
Apple chief
executive Tim Cook has been among the friendliest to Trump of the big
technology CEOs, repeatedly meeting with the president to discuss trade
policy. Even as some tech-industry leaders have faced criticism for
involving themselves with Trump, Cook has steadfastly engaged, even
serving on the Workforce Policy Advisory Board, chaired by Commerce
Secretary Wilbur Ross and Ivanka Trump, the president’s daughter.
After
tweeting about a recent dinner with Cook, the president praised the CEO
in front of reporters earlier this week, telling them that Cook calls
him whenever there’s a problem.
“Others go out and hire very expensive consultants, and Tim Cook calls Donald Trump directly,” Trump said.
China,
because of its sheer size, is also an important market for iPhone
sales, compounding Apple’s reluctance to disrupt its manufacturing
presence there. In the third fiscal quarter of 2019, the country was
responsible for $9.19 billion of Apple’s revenue, compared with $25
billion in the Americas.
Plenty of other
industries rely on China, too. Delta Children, a U.S. manufacturer of
baby furniture, makes about 80 percent of its products in China.
Joe
Shamie, the company’s president, said that he has tried in recent
months to move production to other countries, including Indonesia,
Malaysia and Vietnam, but that factories in those countries are already
saturated with orders.
He
has also tried to find ways to manufacture mattresses in the United
States, he said, but would need about $1 million worth of machinery from
China, which is now subject to the Trump administration’s recent 25
tariffs on imports.
“I’m trying my best, and
now you want to tax me on the machinery I need to manufacture in the
United States? That’s real smart,” he said. “This has been a disaster.”
Columbia
Sportswear says it began moving its manufacturing out of China about 15
years ago as cheaper alternatives emerged in other parts of Asia and
Africa. The company now sources from 19 countries but still gets about
10 percent of its imports from China.
“It’s not
the cheapest place in the world to make stuff anymore, but the
merchandise that still comes from China is very specialized and can’t be
moved easily,” said Timothy Boyle, the company’s chief executive.
LiteGear
Bags used to manufacture all of its luggage and accessories in China.
In recent months, founder Raible says she has spent tens of thousands of
dollars moving about one-third of the company’s operations to Cambodia.
“It
was an incredibly difficult process,” she said. “It took them months to
get up to speed. I mean, this was a factory that was making sunglass
pouches and all of a sudden I’m asking them to make shoulder bags,
packing cubes and backpacks.”
The majority of
her products continue to come from China, and she said the Trump
administration’s tariffs have caused import duties to rise to 42.6
percent on many of her items, up from 17.6 percent less than a year ago.
She’s had to lay off her staff of six, and now relies on hourly
contractors to help with accounting, shipping and graphic design.
“I’m fighting tooth and nail to hang on,” she said.
Trump himself has long capitalized on foreign manufacturing, particularly in China, for the production of Trump brand merchandise.
In
the retail shop operated by the Trump Organization in the back of
Trump’s D.C. hotel, golf caps and travel coffee mugs emblazoned with the
Trump name and made in China are still offered for sale, alongside
other products produced in Indonesia, Vietnam and other countries.
A
spokeswoman for the Trump Organization, Amanda Miller, did not respond
to a request for comment Friday about whether the company would stop
selling or producing Chinese products in response to the president’s
directive.
Trump still owns his company, but it is being managed by his adult sons, Donald Trump Jr. and Eric Trump, while he is in office.
Amid
criticism that Trump’s company continued to rely on imported
merchandise while Trump railed against others for doing so, the Trump
Organization began offering more merchandise clearly labeled “Made in
America,” including T-shirts and hats. On its retail site, TrumpStore.com, the company now lists a “Made in America” section.
During
the presidential campaign, Trump responded to a question about why he
imported products by saying, “We’re allowed to do it. … But I’m the one
that knows how to change it.”
Jonathan O’Connell contributed to this report.
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