Thursday, 8 August 2019

Bloomberg/Peter Millard and Fabiola Zerpa: China Comes to the Rescue of Venezuela’s Run-Down Oil Refineries

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Photographer: Diego Giudice/Bloomberg
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China Comes to the Rescue of Venezuela’s Run-Down Oil Refineries

Updated on
  • Shanghai-based Wison Engineering to carry out urgent repairs
  • Venezuela to pay for services with diesel fuel in barter deal
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A Chinese contractor has agreed to shore up Venezuela’s derelict refining network to ease fuel shortages, potentially complicating the Trump administration’s push for regime change in the oil-rich country.
Wison Engineering Services Co., a Shanghai-based chemical engineering and construction company that is using China’s ‘Belt and Road’ infrastructure program to expand overseas, agreed last month to repair Venezuela’s main refineries in exchange for oil products including diesel, according to people with knowledge of the deal.
U.S. financial sanctions aimed at starving the current regime of revenue contributed to the decision to revive a domestic refining industry crippled by years of mismanagement and under-investment, said one of the people, who asked not to be identified because the information is confidential.
VENEZUELA-CHINA-MADURO-XI
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro (2-R) shakes hands with China’s Xi Jinping (2-L) in Caracas
LEO RAMIREZ/AFP/Getty Images
The deal mirrors the OPEC producer’s other arrangements with Russian and Chinese oil majors, under which payments are made in crude by Venezuela’s cash-strapped national oil company.
Wison’s repairs are expected to last six months to a year, according to another person. The Nicolas Maduro administration was having difficulties navigating the U.S. economic blockade even before the U.S. announced additional restrictions on Aug. 5. Last month state-controlled Petroleos de Venezuela SA was importing Russian gasoline through Malta to relieve shortages, a slow and expensive route to the Caribbean nation.

Irregular Supply

Irregular fuel supplies have crippled mobility in a country where shortages of food and basic medical supplies have already caused a health crisis and led to one of the largest mass migrations of recent times. PDVSA, as the state producer is known, has been directing most available gasoline to Caracas, where Maduro is most vulnerable to mass protests.
The Trump administration was hoping to swiftly chase Maduro out of power earlier this year, and has criticized China and Russia for supporting what it considers a criminal and repressive regime.
Wison didn’t respond to an email or fax seeking comment on the refinery contract. PDVSA didn’t respond to emails and calls seeking comment.
The Chinese company hasn’t completed a contract it won in 2012 to overhaul the Puerto la Cruz refinery. Wison’s revenue from Venezuela sank 72% last year as the nation’s economic crisis deepened, according to it’s annual report.
China and Russia have an interest in preventing the complete collapse of Venezuela’s oil industry because it’s the only way to recoup the tens of billions of dollars in loans and investments they have made in the past decade. Wison’s deal also underscores how the oil-hungry Asian nation remains committed to Venezuela as a strategic location for foreign investment.

Economic Blockade

Restoring fuel production, if it happens fast enough, would weaken the U.S. economic blockade and put Maduro in a stronger negotiating position as talks with the opposition drag on without any visible progress.
Despite Venezuelans’ widespread dissatisfaction with their government, divisions within the opposition are complicating the push toward a post-Maduro administration. While about 50 nations recognize National Assembly President Juan Guaido as the country’s interim president, China has declined to get involved in what it considers an internal conflict.
More coverage of the crisis in Venezuela:
Venezuela’s refining industry, once a major supplier to the U.S. with 1.3 million barrels a day of capacity, has been in gradual decline due to theft, inadequate maintenance and a brain drain of qualified staff, and was hit by a series of major power outages this year. In recent years, PDVSA hasn’t even been able to meet domestic gasoline demand that has historically been about 250,000 barrels a day.
The U.S. has so far shied away from military intervention in Venezuela and has instead imposed economic sanctions that target the oil industry and key members of the government and the military. American officials continue to project confidence about replacing Maduro with a pro-business administration despite the lack of progress.
China rejects “foreign interventions and unilateral sanctions” in Venezuela, and supports dialogue between the government and the opposition, its embassy in Caracas said in a statement on May 12. The embassy didn’t immediately offer additional comments when contacted by Bloomberg.
China wants “to be identified with a friendly socialist government, especially in the backyard of the U.S.,” said Schreiner Parker, Rystad Energy’s vice president for Latin America. “They have no guarantee that a regime change will necessarily mean that they’re going to be repaid.”
— With assistance by Lucia Kassai, and Alfred Cang
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China Yuan-Fixing Drama Fades as PBOC Seen Pursuing Stability

markets

China Sets Yuan Fixing Stronger Than Expected, Soothing Nerves

Updated on
  • PBOC reinforcing message it is seeking stability, analyst says
  • Reference rate set weaker than 7 for the first time since 2008
Why the U.S. Calls China a Currency Manipulator
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The yuan steadied on Thursday after China’s central bank set the daily fixing stronger than analysts expected, providing some reassurance to traders rattled by a tumultuous week in markets.
The currency rose as much as 0.3% after the People’s Bank of China set its daily reference rate at 7.0039 per dollar. While that was the first time since 2008 that the fixing was weaker than 7, it tracked earlier moves in the spot rate and was stronger than the 7.0156 average estimate of 21 analysts and traders surveyed by Bloomberg.
The fixing has become a closely-watched event after a weak reference rate on Monday triggered the biggest loss in the yuan since 2015, sparking concern about a global currency war. The latest move comes after the PBOC took steps to calm sentiment, including reassuring foreign companies that the yuan won’t weaken significantly.
“China wants to prevent panic now,” said Gao Qi, a strategist at Scotiabank. “The PBOC will continue to send signals to stabilize the yuan in the near term.”
Yuan stabilizes after PBOC sets stronger-than-expected fixing
The yuan is down 3.7% in the past three months, and at its lowest since at least 2015 against a basket of 24 trading partners’ currencies.
Further depreciation is still on the cards. U.S. President Donald Trump has threatened to impose more tariffs on Chinese goods and the PBOC could loosen its monetary policy to aid growth. Central banks in New Zealand, India and Thailand all made surprise interest-rate cuts on Wednesday, stoking fears of a full-on currency war.
Yet China will be keen to avoid the experiences of 2015-2016, when a one-off devaluation spurred companies and individuals to yank money out of the country.
“I suspect the authorities will want to gain more comfort over the next few days and weeks that we’re not seeing a huge intensification of capital outflow pressures, before they possibly allow it to go a little weaker,” said Andrew Tilton, chief Asia Pacific economist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. “Right now I suspect they want to desensitize the market to this magic number of 7, and make sure that they are not going to have a capital outflow problem.”
Get more stories on China’s yuan:
Yuan May Fall But Don’t Expect Collapse, ex-PBOC Adviser Says
CHINA INSIGHT: Yuan Drop Unlocks ‘Impossible Trinity’ (2)
China’s FX Reserves Slip in July Signaling Little Intervention 
China’s Currency Hand Is Stronger Than Trump Thinks: Shuli Ren
From Fixing to Signaling, How China Manages the Yuan: QuickTake
The risk is how the Trump administration responds to a weaker yuan. The U.S. this week labeled China a currency manipulator, a formal designation which China rejects. The yuan may tumble to as weak as 7.7 in the event of an intensification of trade tensions, according to Societe Generale SA.
“The further it falls, the more likely the Trump administration will respond with more tariffs and other policies to target China,” said Ben Emons, managing director for global macro strategy at Medley Global Advisors in New York. “All of which points to even more downside in the RMB, which is then a problem for other emerging countries that compete with China,” he said, using an abbreviation of the yuan’s official name.
That means the PBOC’s reference rate is going to continue to be closely watched by traders and central bankers alike.
“The fix is the number one game in town and will continue to dictate the pace of play for risk assets over the near-term,” said Stephen Innes, managing director for VM Markets Ltd. in Singapore. “Nothing else matters at this stage.”
— With assistance by Qizi Sun, Enda Curran, and Claire Che
(An earlier version of the story corrected a spelling error in the headline.)

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