RenewEconomy/Sophie Vorrath: Global EV growth to pass 25 million a year in 2025, says study

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Global EV growth to pass 25 million a year in 2025, says study
By Sophie Vorrath on 27 February 2018
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The world is on track to add 25 million new electric vehicles to roads a year by 2025, a new report has forecast, after a massive 55 per cent growth in EV registrations was recorded in 2017.

In a German survey that counted cars with battery-powered electric drives, range extenders and plug-in hybrids, the number of EVs worldwide was put at 3.2 million, as at the beginning of 2018.

The survey, conducted by the Centre for Solar Energy and Hydrogen Research Baden-Württemberg (ZSW), confirmed that China is leading the push to electrified car transport, with some 1.2 million EVs on its own roads – nearly double the amount it had in 2016.

China “is the world’s most dynamic market in legacy vehicles and new registrations,” the report said. “1,212,280 electric cars are rolling on China’s roads these days. The count nearly doubled in 2017 with 579,000 new registrations.”

In second place on EV uptake was the US, with 751,510 e-cars, including 195,140 newly registered vehicles in 2017.

Japan ranked third with 201,410 cars, followed by Norway, with 187,270 cars – an increase of 62,320.

Interestingly, Norway also ranks at the top of the on the EV percentage share of all passenger cars, at 39.3 percent of cars newly registered in 2017 and 6.2 percent of all cars on the nation’s roads.

Meanwhile, in Australia, EV growth has been going backwards, with total sales of electric cars falling year-on-year since 2015, thanks to a dearth of government incentives to drive uptake, and an increasingly limited range of affordable models available to consumers.

According to the federal government itself, Australia is headed to a total of just one million EVs by 2040 – or 15 per cent of new sales by 2030.

Sources: Own calculations ZSW according to German Federal Motor Transport Authority, ZIV Zweirad-Industrie-Verband, European Alternative Fuel Observatory, Hybridcars.com, EV Sales, EV Norway, Avere France, FCE, EV Volumes, Department for Transport UK, Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT), CAAM, Rijksdienst voor Ondernemend Nederland, Bil Sweden, Green Car Reports, auto-schweiz.

On EV brand, the analysis from the German survey showed that the Chinese made BYD and BAIC cars accounted for the greatest number of new registrations.

In the West, Tesla retained top spot with 86,700 new registrations, despite the delays in the mass-market priced Model 3 rollout. BMW finished fourth, followed by VW in fifth place.

And, as many other major automakers – like the UK’s Land Rover Jaguar – start to turn their focus to electric vehicles, the EV growth story is only just beginning.

“If the rate remains anywhere near (55 per cent), the number of electric vehicles registered annually will exceed 25 million by 2025,” says Prof. Werner Tillmetz, a member of ZSW’s board of directors and head of the Electrochemical Energy Technologies division.

“Growth rates like these also require enormous expansions in cell production,” Tilimetz added.

“Market demand for cell capacity will then come to more than 1,000 gigawatt hours per year,” he said.

“That is tantamount to 20 new gigawatt battery factories and more than €100 billion in investments—all within just a few years.

“It will take a broad investment campaign on the part of German and European industries to steer clear of the looming supply bottlenecks and strategic dependencies.” 
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